ACEWM’s PhD Candidate Haile Belay successfully defended his Dissertation

The Africa Center of Excellence for Water Management (ACEWM) proudly announces the successful PhD dissertation defense of Haile Belay, whose research offers vital insights into flood dynamics in Ethiopia’s Upper Blue Nile Basin.

Haile’s dissertation, titled “Evaluation of the Impacts of Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change on Flood Occurrence in the Gumara Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia”, explores the increasing frequency and severity of flooding in the region, driven by rapid land use changes and shifting climate patterns.

Using advanced modeling tools—including HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS 2D, and Google Earth Engine’s CA-Markov model—Haile projected future land use trends and simulated flood scenarios under multiple climate conditions using CMIP5 and CMIP6 data. His findings show significant increases in peak flows and flood extents, particularly under the SSP5–8.5 climate scenario and business-as-usual land use assumptions by 2065. Sentinel-1 SAR imagery further validated the simulations, revealing expanding flood-prone zones.

Key highlights of his research include the identification of critical sub-watersheds using the unit flood response (UFR) approach and a demonstrated link between NDVI trends, rainfall patterns, and land surface temperatures—underscoring the complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and flood risk.

The dissertation defense was chaired by Dr. Dessie Nedaw of Addis Ababa University, with evaluation by Prof. Seifu Admassu (Bahir Dar University) and Dr. Tena Alamirew (Addis Ababa University). The research was supervised by Prof. Assefa M. Melesse (Florida International University) and co-supervised by Dr. Getachew Tegegne (Addis Ababa Science and Technology University).

Haile’s work contributes significantly to the field of hydrology and flood risk management, offering evidence-based insights to support sustainable watershed planning in the face of climate change.